Swing Weekly Brief 2026-11-01

Summary

Last week was a tech-led selloff: QQQ fell 2.0%, SPY 0.6%, DIA 0.8%, while IWM gained 1.3%, after Alphabet, Amazon and Intel earnings disappointed. All four indexes remain above rising 89 week MAs; SPY and DIA hold above the 34 week, while QQQ and IWM slipped just below it, and QQQ's weekly low tagged the 38.2% retracement of its March to October advance. Money is rotating into energy and health care (XLE and XLV lead on both 4 and 13 weeks) and out of tech and communications. No scan name hit weekly RSI 32 or lower; the cleanest pullback is JPM near its rising 34 week MA. No index touched its 89 week MA, but GOOGL, AMZN and AVGO did at the stock level.

Last week recap (week of Oct 26 to Oct 30, close to close)

Biggest moves: XLC -5.3% (Alphabet fell about 12 to 13% on Oct 29 after its Q3 miss) and XLK -2.0% (semis sold off Oct 30 after Intel guidance); XLV +3.1% and XLB +2.8% led. Last week's ranked scan names: not available, because the Oct 29 brief run failed, so there is no prior list to grade.

Week ahead events (all times ET)

Macro, source: Forex Factory calendar feed (nfs.faireconomy.media), fetched Nov 1 08:12 ET:

No CPI, retail sales, or FOMC meeting this week (the Fed held at 3.75% to 4.00% on Oct 29).

Earnings, source: Nasdaq earnings calendar (api.nasdaq.com), fetched Nov 1 08:12 ET; dates are expected, confirm before trading:

Later in the trade window: NVDA Nov 17 after close, WMT Nov 19 pre-market.

Top priority, 89 week MA touches

No index touched its 89 week MA. Weekly lows sit well above it: SPY 11.5%, QQQ 11.6%, IWM 10.5%, DIA 8.7%.

Stock-level 89 week touches (weekly low at or within 1% of the 89 week MA, 34 week MA still rising, but price is BELOW the 34 week, so these are deeper pullbacks, not scan qualifiers):

GOOGL is the one to watch: weekly RSI 33 (nearly at the 32 trigger), daily RSI 22.8, sitting on its 89 week after the earnings gap. Wait for a weekly stochastic cross up before treating it as a setup.

1) index weekly trend (week of Oct 26 bar)

Read: long-term uptrends intact (rising 34 and 89 week everywhere), but intermediate structure has weakened, with all four now under their 21 week. QQQ is the weakest (-7.9% over 4 weeks).

Elliott Wave layer (interpretation, not certainty):

• SPY: impulse swing low 629.28 (week of Mar 30, 2026) to high 781.62 (week of Oct 5). 38.2% = 723.43, 50% = 705.45 (23.6% = 745.67). Last week's low 750.36. Most likely a wave 4 pullback just starting after a wave 3 or 5 top in early October. Price is not yet in the typical wave 4 zone; it sits above the 23.6% level.
• QQQ: swing low 555.60 (week of Mar 30) to high 762.86 (week of Oct 5). 38.2% = 683.69, 50% = 659.23. Last week's low 683.45 tagged the 38.2% almost exactly. Likely wave 4 in progress and now inside the typical zone. A hold of 659 to 684 keeps a wave 5 higher in play; a weekly close below 659 raises odds of a larger correction.
• IWM: swing low 206.81 (week of Jun 23, 2025) to high 305.18 (week of Aug 10, 2026). 38.2% = 267.60, 50% = 255.99. Low of 269.88 (week of Oct 12) came close to the 38.2%. Looks like a corrective ABC wave 4 that may be finishing, supported by the weekly stochastic cross up from below 20. Needs a weekly close back over the 34 week (282) to confirm.

2) sector rotation (relative strength vs SPY; SPY 4w -1.81%, 13w +1.16%)

Ranked by 13 week RS. Rotation is defensive and commodity-led: energy (crude near $103 per TipRanks), health care and staples lead, utilities and financials are strong on 4 weeks. Tech and communications are the laggards on 4 weeks; XLC weekly RSI 31.6 is near oversold. XLE and XLV are extended (RSI above 70), so better as hold-or-wait-for-pullback than fresh chases.

3) weekly stock scan

Universe: S&P 500 plus Nasdaq 100 (511 names with data), price over $10, 1M+ average daily volume. 175 names are above a rising 34 week MA. ZERO meet weekly RSI 14 at or below 32, so these are the closest candidates: above a rising 34 week, 34w above 89w, price within 6% of the 34 week, sorted by lowest RSI and setup quality. Plans assume a mid-zone entry; R/R uses that entry.

Why each qualifies:

• JPM: three weeks of support at 325 to 333, holding above a rising 34 week; stochastic turning up from the mid 20s. Stop under the 13 week low (325.07). Best R/R of the group. EW read (interpretation): possible completed wave 4 after the Mar to Aug advance (279.10 to 366.50); the 38.2% to 50% zone is 333.1 to 322.8 and the low (325.07) landed inside it.
• BEN: cleanest stochastic signal, a bullish cross from below 20, sitting just above the 34 week. Earnings Fri Nov 6 pre-market are inside the trade window, so size down or wait for the print. EW read: possible wave 4 low, as the 30.09 low sits between the 38.2% (31.05) and 50% (29.43) of the 22.58 to 36.28 advance.
• STT: strongest 34 week slope in the group (+3.2%), held the 34 week on a closing basis, stochastic turning up. Wide stop makes T1 only 1R. EW read: the 156.50 low tagged the 50% retrace (156.04) of 116.15 to 195.93; plausible wave 4 low.
• DAL: just above a rising 34 week with stochastic at 14 (oversold) but not yet crossed. A watch name: a weekly K over D cross is the trigger. EW read: no clear count; the low slipped just under the 50% retrace (75.48).
• BNY: stochastic crossed up from 22, above the 34 week, but overhead 21 week at 152 caps the near-term reward. EW read: no clear count; the pullback ran deeper than 50%, toward 61.8% (132.39).

Also noted: TWLO is above a rising 34 week (wk RSI 46.9) but fell 21.7% last week after earnings; too volatile to rank. COF's weekly low (201.28) tagged its 89 week MA (204.45) with a barely rising 34 week.

4) daily levels for monday's open (Fri Oct 30 daily bar)

5) weekend news likely to carry into monday

• AI spending worries after Big Tech earnings. Alphabet missed on revenue and EPS (Q3 EPS $2.12 vs $3.02 expected) and fell nearly 13% on Oct 29, its worst one day drop on record per TipRanks; Amazon fell after a double miss despite 40% AWS growth (Yahoo Finance, CGTN).
• Semis hit Oct 30: Intel fell 29% on weak Q4 guidance; AMD, Qualcomm, Marvell and Arm fell around 10%, Nvidia about 4%, and the SOX dropped 7.2% (CGTN, Nov 1). AMD (Tue) and QCOM and ARM (Wed) report this week.
• Friday closes per TipRanks: Dow -1.09%, S&P 500 -1.82%, Nasdaq 100 -3.46%; 10 year yield about 4.93%, crude about $102.95, VIX 19.42.
• Apple reports Mon after the close, Tuesday is the midterm election, and the jobs report is Friday.
• Anthropic filed its S-1 for an IPO on Oct 26 (Yahoo Finance, CGTN).

Sources: Yahoo Finance week ahead, TipRanks week that was, CGTN tech selloff. I did not see Sunday futures data; check them before the open.

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